While developed nations increasingly debate the adoption of large-scale immigrant deportation, their consequences to cities and housing markets are vastly unknown. We study the 1930s mass repatriation of Mexicans and its effects on U.S. housing markets. Developing a novel Census house-linking algorithm, we document that the repatriation negatively impacted U.S. cities. Mexican-occupied properties saw decreased values and rents, but were not subsequently occupied by U.S.-born families. Instead, the repatriation lowered neighboring U.S.-born house values and depressed cities' real estate growth. Our findings reveal significant adverse effects on individual and aggregate housing wealth, challenging the notion that deportations benefit U.S.-born households.

Is immigrant segregation caused by native flight or self-isolation? If the former, which natives avoid immigrants, and which types? Previous literature on ethnic segregation has focused on static models that characterize steady equilibria of local white shares. However, these models ignore churn and local sorting among majority populations. We address these issues using a dynamic model that contemplates constant mobility in and out of the neighborhood by both natives and minorities. Using a matched panel containing all individuals and properties in Denmark from 1987 to 2017, we exploit the quasi-random nature of refugee placements and simulated, exogenous Markov chain predictions to generate experimental variation in local immigrant arrivals. We find strong evidence of white flight, as measured by increased churn and net losses among the majority population, even at the building level. However, not everyone is upset by the presence of minorities. Flight is stronger among the elderly and in reaction to the arrival of low-income immigrants, regardless of their cultural background. As neighborhoods become densely populated with immigrants, young, low-income native citizens without children continue to move in disproportionately, but so do other immigrants.

Using confidential administrative data on all South African exporters and the staggered rollout of a real-time gross payment system across 14 African countries, we study the causal effects of cross-border payment integration on trade. Following implementation, firms increase export volumes by 35% and transaction frequency by 45%—equivalent to a 6-8% tariff cut. We find no evidence of trade diversion, suggesting that integration creates trade rather than merely reallocating flows. Effects are concentrated where domestic fast-payment infrastructure pre-existed and among financially constrained firms. Our results underscore the policy relevance of fast and reliable payment integration in a high-tariff global environment.

We examine how foreign aid shapes urban development in Sub-Saharan Africa at the very local level. Using data on 1,643 georeferenced Chinese aid projects, we analyze the effect of aid on the evolution of built-up surface and volume at 100-meter grid cells within a 2-kilometer microregion. Our staggered difference-in-differences approach reveals that foreign aid projects significantly increase local urbanization, with the effects decreasing with distance from the projects. Treatment effects are mostly driven by residential development, particularly in previously underdeveloped areas. Our findings contribute to the understanding of the consequences of foreign aid on urban transformations in the developing world.

This paper explores the unique dynamics of natural disaster-induced migration on the housing market, focusing on the 1930s Dust Bowl migration to Los Angeles—the top migrant destination. We show that houses inhabited by Dust Bowl migrants had 4 p.p. lower price growth over the decade. Crucially, we uncover valuation spillovers within highly granular neighborhoods, where houses inhabited by non-migrants also experienced lower price growth modulated by how close they were to dust bowlers. Our analysis of mechanisms suggests these effects were primarily driven by the economic vulnerability of migrants, revealing a pattern of residential sorting associated with wealth and economic status.

We study the effect of the bilateral trade integration with China on wage inequality in Brazil. Previous studies have documented the contribution of trade opening to the decline in inequality since the 1990s, driven primarily by cross-firm pay differences. We find a sharper reduction in wage inequality over the 2000s, parallel to China’s accession to the WTO. Our analysis of the China shock suggests that some firms are harmed by import competition, especially the ones in the High-Tech Manufacturing sector, while others profit from increased exports and cheaper inputs. We rationalize these patterns by extending the theoretical framework of Helpman et al. (2017) to include sector heterogeneity in trade exposure and firm-level selection into imports. Our model indicates that the rise of China led to a reduction in cross-firm wage inequality in Brazil by about 5%.

This paper studies how and why the bilateral trades in manufacturing and services differ in their response to changes in the determinants, both theoretically and empirically. We build a unified theoretical framework that incorporates a demand bias towards services and a difference in the degree of national product differentiation between the two product groups. Estimation results support the theoretical predictions. The empirical model includes, among others, two non-standard trade-cost variables: a measure of internet penetration and virtual proximity (the number of bilateral hyperlinks). An important finding is that virtual proximity—thus far ignored in most gravity models—is a strong predictor of aggregate trade in both services and manufacturing. Also, physical distance is an important determinant of bilateral trade in manufacturing and services, even while controlling for virtual proximity.

We study the role of port efficiency on international trade, estimating the impact of vessel turnaround time on Brazilian exports. The main empirical challenge is to control for non-observed local factors that determine trade flows. This paper addresses this challenge by combining detailed data of Brazilian exports with an empirical strategy that allows us to control for various unobserved local determinants of exports. We use a unique database with vessel turnaround time at each port and city-level exports, including information on the Brazilian port used, the destination country, and products. The empirical strategy relies on a difference-gravity equation to explore the variation in port procedures turnaround. This approach controls for unobserved characteristics and determinants common to geographically close cities, exporting the same product to the same destination country. The results suggest that port delays are associated with decreased volumes of exports and decreased product variety. We find that each additional hour of port procedure delay is equivalent to a reduction in relative local exports of 2%. On average, a 10% relative reduction in vessel turnaround time increases the number of exported product categories by 1%. Our findings suggest that delays in port procedures represent costs to Brazilian exporters, affecting both the intensive and extensive margins of trade.

Este artigo tem por finalidade avaliar o desempenho do Brasil perante seus principais parceiros comerciais em termos da facilitação de comércio. Para tanto, foram utilizados dados referentes ao comércio internacional brasileiro associados a indicadores de facilitação de comércio, obtidos do Global Enabling Trade Report. A esses dados foram aplicadas técnicas estatísticas multivariadas: análise de cluster e testes de comparação múltipla de médias. Os resultados apontam que países emergentes como o Brasil apresentam baixo desempenho em facilitação de comércio, indicando uma posição menos competitiva perante os demais parceiros no comércio internacional. Por outro lado, países desenvolvidos apresentam alto desempenho em facilitação do comércio, embora demonstrem um maior nível de proteção “tradicional”, como tarifas e cotas tarifárias.